CPOResearch.com  A Product Of Market Projection Technologies, Inc.

Cyclical analysis for traders and investors

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History of the CPO

The concept of the program started in 1978 as a by-product of research into the cyclical nature of vibration in aircraft components.  An engineer with a background in aerospace technology had the idea for the math behind the program, and John Rawlins envisioned the actual application.  Starting with copper and soybeans, the program was tested on historical dataThe forecasting results proved so valuable that it launched a lifetime quest to develop the technology into what it is today. 

Even with the primitive computers available at the time, the program produced positive results.  As John experimented with various data time frames and markets he began to learn the best way to employ the program.  After applying it to raw data through the early 1980s he discovered that by smoothing, or detrending, the data, he could extract a better cyclical harmonic producing a more viable tool for accurately timing markets.  This new approach placed the focus on cyclical timing rather than price forecasting.  The approach converts price data into the form of a detrended proxy for the market, specifically our proprietary oscillator.  In 1986 he came up with the name Cycle Projection Oscillator, or CPO.

In the early 1990s he developed the capability to filter a historical database more efficiently to find the cyclical summations that were driving the current market behavior.  This was accomplished through software enhancements and more powerful computers.  The ability to easily vary the period of data under study allows us to isolate the cycles that are truly impacting the market.  This breakthrough has improved the accuracy of the forecasts.   

Over the years, CPO analysis has been the subject of international publications, market newsletters and brokerage firm research reports.  Clients have included Goldman Sachs, Coca-Cola, and other major U.S. financial and corporate entities.  The termination of an EXCLUSIVE deal with a major bond trading firm has now made it possible to offer CPO analysis to a wider audience.

 

How the CPO is different

Traditional cycle analysis attempts to isolate only a few cycles. This approach, while occasionally successful, ignores the totality of all cyclical forces impacting a market.  The CPO identifies all the predominant cycles in a data stream, extracts them, and then does a cyclical summation.  The program then builds the composite of all the important cycles into a sinusoidal-looking wave that is then projected into the future. 

Thinking outside the box The math that has gone into the program is unique and is the result of a new approach to cycle analysis.   Similar to but vastly superior to Fourier Analysis, our creative approach is not available anywhere else.  The technique for extracting cyclical activity, and also detrending raw data, is what allows us to produce unique analysis. 

Our software allows for "back testing."  When analyzing a database you can visually compare actual market action with the projected path over recent times.  This allows us to fine-tune the analysis until there is a high level of confidence in the forecast. 

Why is the CPO the superior tool?  It's a combination of unique mathematical formulas developed by one of the foremost minds in the field, and John's real money trading experience/development over the last 24 years that set the CPO apart from all other commercially available cycle techniques.  As an independent source of unbiased analysis, the CPO is an extremely valuable addition to ANY trader's arsenal.